• In the 1970s the first generation of circulation models ran on time-shared mainframe computers. These models were accurate but difficult and expensive to use

• Lighthouse Publishing Services launched the first worksheet-based circulation models in the 1980s. These models ran on PCs using Microsoft Excel or Lotus 1-2-3, and were relatively easy to use. The company was a great success and became worldwide market leader

Alan Weaver Associates was Lighthouse’s partner in Europe. We customised their circulation models for European publishers and we provided technical support and user training. Early clients included The Economist, Time Inc, Newsweek, Reed-Elsevier, Verlagsgruppe Handelsblatt and L'Express.

By the early 1990s Lighthouse had continued to grow very quickly but overtraded, ran out of cash and was acquired by Neodata. The new owners closed down the company and began to sell the circulation models alongside their existing fulfilment bureau services, though now with much-reduced levels of marketing and technical support.  We did not continue our partnership arrangement with the new owners.

In the mid 1990s we decided to develop The Weaver Publishing Model. We wanted to maintain the Lighthouse traditions of circulation modelling, which were:
 

• Worksheet based (making the models easy to use and amend)

• All calculations are visible and auditable

• Easy to import and export data

• Using graphs to visualise the effects of additional promotion campaigns

...and we wanted to remove Lighthouse’s weaknesses, which were:

• All the calculations were on a single worksheet

• There were numerous non-adjacent data entry cells

• There was only one first-time renewal group and only one second- and subsequent-time renewal group

• There was no support for auto-renewals (such as Direct Debits) or multi-currency payments

We developed early prototype models for Euromoney, William Reed Publishing and The Wireless Group, and started beta testing in 2001 with installations at EMAP Communications, BBC Worldwide and London Review of Books.

The three test sites have used The Weaver Publishing Model to create their subscription budgets for the last five financial years. All the calculations have been audited and the numbers reconciled with their previous budget models.

At the start of 2007, 14 of the leading publishers in the UK use The Weaver Publishing Model for their budgeting and forecasting.